The American dream of owning a house and a car may be changing in the future.  While home ownership will likely remain intact, vehicle ownership may change considerably.  Many predict that in the future, people will not own their own vehicles.  Instead, transportation will be arranged as a service from companies operating fleets of self-driving vehicles.  There are many that predict that this major change is just around the corner.  Proponents argue that there too are many safety, economic and technical advantages related to “transportation-as-a-service” for it to take a long time to be implemented.  Many go as far to say that individuals owning their own vehicle will be seen as a novelty for collectors and other automotive enthusiasts sooner rather than later.  Recent events bolster this argument.

Recently, Uber announced a deal with Volvo for 24,000 self-driving vehicles. Tesla is joining the fray with an electric long-range tractor-trailer vehicle that has amazing technical specifications in terms of range, performance and self-driving capabilities. Tesla also is announcing that they may be producing the fastest production car ever manufactured with a 0 to 60 time that is shorter than the time it takes to read “zero to sixty” all in a self-driving package.  From all indications, the future is rapidly coming to pass. 

As with all major revolutions, the switch from individual ownership to transportation-as-a-service will have far-reaching societal impact.  These changes will be prominent in terms of economic shifts, industrial shifts, energy industry changes, vehicle designs, city landscape modifications, cultural changes and changes in driver safety. 

In regard to economic changes involving consumers, it is anticipated that consumers will stand to save a lot of money considering that the cost of ownership and maintenance of personal vehicles is significant.   That translates to income that can be used or other purposes.  The downside is that employment opportunities may shift making it hard for some consumers to maintain employment or cause the need to switch their vocation.  Technologies often change faster than the work force.  For example, the demand for truck and taxi cab drivers will be drastically reduced much like many vocations in the past have become obsolete due to technical innovations (e.g., switchboard operators).  

Give the size of the automotive industry, the change from individual ownership to fleet operations will change the landscape of industry and, to some degree, wealth distribution. Software and technology companies will grow even larger as part of the world’s economy.  Companies such as Google, Amazon and Uber are already in a good position for the change that it is likely they will grow even more in terms of the market share.  Many are concerned that, without government intervention, there will be a major transfer of wealth from a larger population to a very small number of individuals involved in the software, technologies and general infrastructure that support this industry shift. 

Changes will also impact the energy industry as the demand for traditional fossil fuels and petroleum products will be reduced as electric cars replace internal combustion engines.  Vehicle “refueling” will mostly involve operations involving batteries rather than fuel transfers. Batteries will be charged in distributed and highly optimized centers rather than gas stations.  These centers are likely to be owned by big companies associated with the vehicle manufacturers or the result of large corporate agreements.  There may be some room for entrepreneurial opportunities in the battery maintenance industry but it is expected to become consolidated and automated quickly. Other once private vehicle-dominated businesses such as the auto insurance industry will go away as will most car traditional car companies and their supply chain network businesses.
