mr president the current dogma is that iran will be the big winner of the revolutions in north africa and beyond
this is possible but less probable
firstly the iranian model is not exactly what the young people who are revolting in these countries are aspiring to
secondly the regime does not enjoy internal peace in order to concentrate exclusively on promoting a more assertive foreign policy
finally because other countries like turkey or even egypt after but also during transition are powerful competitors to iran's ambitions
of course iran can always derive a degree of influence through proxies but that would probably not prove decisive in gaining control in those countries
paradoxically the only way to derive an advantage would be to look at the current developments as an opportunity to start reinserting iran into the international community
it would be a long road but the only sensible one for iran
i congratulate mr belder on an excellent report
