Large language models (LLMs) often demonstrate strong performance by leveraging implicit knowledge acquired during pretraining. Analogical reasoning, which solves new problems by referencing similar known examples, offers a structured way to utilize this knowledge, but can also lead to subtle factual errors and hallucinations. In this work, we investigate whether LLMs can recognize the reliability of their own analogical outputs using black-box uncertainty estimation (UE). We evaluate six UE metrics across two reasoning-intensive tasks: mathematical problem solving (GSM8K) and code generation (Codeforces). Our results show that Kernel Language Entropy (KLE) and Lexical Similarity (LexSim) are the most robust indicators of correctness. Moreover, while analogical prompting increases model confidence over direct prompting, most uncertainty arises during the analogy transfer step. These findings highlight the limitations of analogical knowledge transfer in LLMs and demonstrate the potential of UE methods for detecting hallucinated reasoning in black-box settings.

Chinese homophones, prevalent in Internet culture, bring rich linguistic twists that are challenging for language models. While native speakers disambiguate them through phonological reasoning and contextual understanding, it remains untested how well LLMs perform on this task and whether LLMs also achieve this via similar reasoning processes or merely through memorization of homophone-original word pairs during training.In this paper, we present HomoP-CN, the first Chinese Internet homophones dataset with systematic perturbations for evaluating LLMs’ homophone restoration capabilities. Using this benchmark, we investigated the influence of semantic, phonological, and graphemic features on LLMs’ restoration accuracy, measured the reliance levels of each model on memorization during restoration through consistency ratios under controlled perturbations, and assessed the effectiveness of various prompting strategies, including contextual cues, pinyin augmentation, few-shot learning, and thought-chain approaches.