Forecasting nuanced shifts in student engagement from longitudinal experiential (LE) data—multi-modal, qualitative trajectories of academic experiences over time—remains challenging due to high dimensionality and missingness. We propose a natural language processing (NLP)-driven framework using large language models (LLMs) to forecast binary engagement levels across four dimensions: Lecture Engagement Disposition, Academic Self-Efficacy, Performance Self-Evaluation, and Academic Identity and Value Perception. Evaluated on 960 trajectories from 96 first-year STEM students, our three-tier approach—LLM-informed imputation to generate textual descriptors for missing-not-at-random (MNAR) patterns, zero-shot feature selection via ensemble voting, and fine-tuned LLMs—processes textual non-cognitive responses. LLMs substantially outperform numeric baselines (e.g., Random Forest, LSTM) by capturing contextual nuances in student responses. Encoder-only LLMs surpass decoder-only variants, highlighting architectural strengths for sparse, qualitative LE data. Our framework advances NLP solutions for modeling student engagement from complex LE data, excelling where traditional methods struggle.

This paper presents a cutting-edge method that harnesses contextualized language models (LMs) to significantly enhance the prediction of early academic performance in STEM fields. Our approach uniquely tackles the challenge of transfer learning with limited-domain data. Specifically, we overcome this challenge by contextualizing students’ cognitive trajectory data through the integration of both distal background factors (comprising academic information, demographic details, and socioeconomic indicators) and proximal non-cognitive factors (such as emotional engagement). By tapping into the rich prior knowledge encoded within pre-trained LMs, we effectively reframe academic performance forecasting as a task ideally suited for natural language processing.Our research rigorously examines three key aspects: the impact of data contextualization on prediction improvement, the effectiveness of our approach compared to traditional numeric-based models, and the influence of LM capacity on prediction accuracy. The results underscore the significant advantages of utilizing larger LMs with contextualized inputs, representing a notable advancement in the precision of early performance forecasts. These findings emphasize the importance of employing contextualized LMs to enhance artificial intelligence-driven educational support systems and overcome data scarcity challenges.